Holiday tablet sales expected to rise 60%

Holiday tablet sales expected to rise 60%

SAN FRANCISCO—Sales of media tablets are expected to grow 60 percent this holiday season compared with last year, according to a financial research and banking firm that this week released its inaugural "tablet tracker" report estimating production of top-selling tablets.

Craig Berger, an analyst with FBR Capital Markets, wrote in a report circulated Thursday (Nov. 29) that the projected 60 percent year-over-year growth is "impressive, considering the iPad as already very popular and widely available one year ago." Berger's report also concluded that non-Apple tablets are starting to become a meaningful part of the tablet market and that Qualcomm Inc., Broadcom Corp. and Atmel Corp. are the three chip vendors benefitting most from the tablet craze.

FBR estimates that Apple will ship 21 million iPads in the fourth quarter, up from 15 million in the fourth quarter of last year. For the year, FBR estimates that Apple will ship 67.7 million tablets, up from 46.5 million in 2011. The firm also estimates that Apple will ship 5.5 million units of the recently introduced iPad mini in the fourth quarter, giving it a total of 7.5 million units for the year.


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Berger wrote that iPad mini is gaining momentum after a somewhat muted launch. He said FBR expects the mini will boost Apple's tablet market share to peak at 64 percent in the second quarter of 2013, up from 58 percent in the third quarter of this year.

"However, we expect that by the end of 2013, the constant deluge of cheaper Android-based tablets will begin to chip away at Apple's market share," Berger wrote.


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Earlier this week, ABI Research estimated that Apple's share of the media tablet market fell to 55 percent in the third quarter as a flood of less expensive Android-based tablets continued to chip away at iPad's lead.

FBR estimates that Apple's tablet market share will be 61 percent for all of 2012, falling to 59 percent in 2013.
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